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Russian President Dmitri Medvedev flew to Tajikistan on Wednesday for a summit with China and four Central Asian countries. The countries are members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which meets regularly. This meeting had been on the schedule for while and has no significance, save that it brings the Russians into contact with four former members of the Soviet Union and — as important — China.
Each of the Central Asian countries is obviously trying to measure Russia’s long-term intentions. The issue will not be Georgia, but what Georgia means to them. In other words, how far does Russia intend to go in reasserting its sphere of influence? Medvedev will give suitable reassurances, but the Russian empire and Soviet Union both conquered this area in the past. Retaking it is possible. That means that the four Central Asian countries will be trying very hard to retain their independence without irritating the Russians. For them, this will be a careful meeting.
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